The independents of the FBS (I-A) welcome a new member this year in BYU, recently of the MWC. The Cougars finished 2010 stronger than just about anyone else in the country (you could throw BC and Notre Dame in that conversation as well), and I’m betting they’ll carry some of that momentum into 2011. As for Notre Dame, they had a marvelous finish last year as well, and let’s not forget they were extremely close to beating both Michigan and Michigan State last year. As much as it pains me to admit, they probably should have won both those games and 2010 would have been a MUCH different year in South Bend had they pulled that off. Well, I’m going way — and I mean WAY — out on a limb this year with my prediction for the Fighting Irish. Check it out.
FBS Independents
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0)
2. BYU Cougars (7-5)
3. Navy Midshipmen (6-6)
4. Army Black Knights (4-8)
Independents Bowl Games
Notre Dame Fighting Irish → BCS National Championship (Jan. 9, 8:30pm — New Orleans, LA)
BYU Cougars → Armed Forces Bowl* (Dec. 30, 12:00pm — Dallas, TX) *BYU has already committed to the Armed Forces Bowl, if they are bowl eligible in 2011
Navy Midshipmen → Military Bowl* (Dec. 28, 4:30pm — Washington, DC) *Navy has already committed to the Military Bowl, if they are bowl eligible in 2011
Like I said, I’m putting myself out there this year betting hard on Brian Kelly in his second year in South Bend. Coaches in general, and Kelly in particular, have a reputation for major improvement in the second year of a program. Throw in the fact that ND returns almost everyone from last year’s solid team, along with a very good crop of incoming players, and a manageable schedule and I like the Irish to run the table. And you know what that means. Keep checking back on my blog to find out who I have them facing in the BCS National Championship Game.
If you’ve ever read any of my previous posts, you’re probably well aware of how I feel about the Big East. Don’t get me wrong – these schools are not bad by any means. What they are is thoroughly mediocre. For the past few seasons, the Big East has stolen a bid from a more deserving school because of their automatic qualifier status. For a conference that is brutally tough, like the SEC, having your champion automatically qualify for a BCS game, even if they had 2 or 3 losses, is acceptable. Not in the Big East. If you have more than a loss in the Big East, most years you should not be in the conversation for BCS bowl games. And yet their AQ status remains intact.
So someone from the Big East will get to a BCS game in 2011 – by default. Who’s that going to be? My answer might surprise you.
Connecticut Huskies → St. Petersburg Bowl (Dec. 20, 8:00pm — St. Petersburg, FL)
I’m liking the USF Bulls this year. Their head coach, Skip Holtz, is fantastic, and they have a lot of talent. WVU and Pitt might be even more talented, but they are also both experiencing a coaching change in 2011 and normally that means struggles. Any of those three teams could easily walk away with the title when all is said and done, but the coaching experience is making me lean towards USF. Again, I think USF, Pitt and WVU will all be very good teams in 2011, but should they get in to a BCS game at 9-3 like I’m predicting they will be? Probably not.
The Mountain West has been criminally underrated and under-appreciated the past few seasons. When I heard that Boise State was jumping to the league from the WAC I was ecstatic – finally they might get the Automatic Qualifying status they deserve over the disappointing and overrated Big East. But then came the news that BYU and Utah were jumping ship, with TCU to follow the year later. Throw in the additions of Hawaii, Fresno State and Nevada starting next year, and basically the Mountain West will be the WAC 2.0. Alas. It could have been a truly great conference if the three recent powerhouses (BYU, TCU, Utah) had stuck around along with Boise State, but we’ll never know now. That has nothing to do with this year, however. Check out my predictions for 2011 below.
San Diego State Aztecs → Poinsettia Bowl (Dec. 21, 8pm — San Diego, CA)
Colorado State Rams → New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 17, 2pm — Albuquerque, NM)
It’s almost becoming a boring pick to predict Boise State to go undefeated every year, but I think they’ll win a close one in the opener over Georgia in Atlanta (no easy feat). I don’t think this year’s squad would hold a candle to last year’s, but the schedule is hugely in their favor, and this is a vastly depleted TCU team (just 8 returning starters, only 3 on offense).For the record, I will still argue till I’m blue in the face that last year’s Boise State team could have gone toe-to-toe with any other team in the country. They had arguably the best college quarterback in the country in Kellen Moore (I don’t care how he projects to the NFL), two NFL receivers, a fantastic offensive line, two very good running backs, and one of the most aggressive defenses in the country. That defensive line mauled people last year. That team was championship-caliber, and losing a fluke game in OT against a bitter rival on the road because your kicker choked TWICE on chip-shots does not mean they were a fluke all along and not really one of the top teams in the country. They were. Period. Anyone who watches college football and can take a step back to analyze it objectively would admit that. OK, rant over.
Getting back to TCU, if they had played Air Force at the end of the year, I would have liked them to lose only to Boise State and take 2nd in the conference. Unfortunately, they get a very talented and experienced Falcons team on the road in Week 2. So early in the season, I like the experience over the fresh faces in TCU uniforms, even though they will almost undoubtedly be more talented overall than their Falcons counterparts. If TCU can pull off that ‘upset’ it will set up a huge showdown against Boise State on Nov. 12 in Boise. Again, having to go on the road makes it much more difficult, as Boise is practically invincible on that blue turf. I like BSU to go undefeated, but due to some interesting circumstances that I’m predicting in 2012 (more on that later), they will once again be shut out of a chance to play for the national title. I think you’ll be excited to see who I have them facing in the Fiesta Bowl, however… Keep checking back for posts in the next 24 hours to find out my predictions for the rest of the college football world and all my bowl matchups laid out. For now, off to work. Till next time…
I’ve always believed Conference-USA to be better than they get credit for. Every single year there are some high-quality teams that come out of this league. The same could be said of the MAC as well, but I just like the overall speed and talent level of C-USA more than the MAC. Just helps when you’re recruiting out of Texas and the whole Gulf Coast area versus picking up the scraps of the Midwest. Sorry, but there it is. The scraps of Texas are still better than all but the top handful of players in every other state in the heart of the country.
So with that being said, check out my predictions for C-USA this year. You might be surprised to see where I’ve got the Southern Miss Golden Eagles finishing… They are perennially one of my secret favorite teams, and I’m not exactly sure why, but I’m really liking them this year. Read on.
C-USA East
1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (13-0, 8-0)
2. East Carolina Pirates (6-6, 6-2)
3. UCF Knights (6-6, 4-4)
4. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-9, 3-5)
5. UAB Blazers (3-9, 2-6)
6. Memphis Tigers (2-10, 1-7)
C-USA West
1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-5, 7-1)
2. Houston Cougars (10-2, 7-1)
3. SMU Mustangs (8-4, 6-2)
4. Rice Owls (3-9, 3-5)
5. Tulane Green Wave (2-11, 1-7)
6. UTEP Miners (2-10, 0-8)
C-USA Championship Game
Southern Miss over Tulsa
C-USA Bowl Games
Southern Miss Golden Eagles → Liberty Bowl (Dec. 31, 3:30pm — Memphis, TN)
East Carolina Pirates → Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24, 8pm — Honolulu, HI)
UCF Knights → New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 17, 9pm — New Orleans, LA)
Clearly, I’m riding extremely high on Southern Miss this year. They have a very talented team and an extremely favorable schedule. I think Houston will have the best offense in the conference, and might even prove to be the best overall team, but until they prove that they have solved their defensive issues, I’m not sure they can win a shootout against Tulsa and that’s why I have the Golden Hurricane in the championship game against the Golden Eagles.
Previewing the MAC conference for you in all of its mediocre glory. For my brother and all his friends at Western Michigan who may or may not read this… I’m sorry. I truly am.
I’m kind of going out on a limb here to predict CMU getting back to the top of the dog pile after a disappointing year in 2010. And I know that won’t make any of the Broncos fans I know happy, but look on the bright side — for many of you, you will hopefully get to experience your first ever taste of bowl season. And I’ll of course be rooting for you to pull the upset and beat CMU and prove me wrong.
Next up is the WAC. Clearly going to be a weakened conference following the loss of Boise State, but I still think there are a couple quality teams in the conference this year. Check it out.
Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
1. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4, 7-0)
2. Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 6-1)
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7, 4-3)
4. Hawaii Warriors (9-4, 4-3)
5. Idaho Vandals (5-7, 3-4)
6. San Jose State Spartans (5-7, 3-4)
7. Utah State Aggies (3-9, 2-5)
8. New Mexico State Aggies (0-13, 0-7)
WAC Bowl Games
Fresno State Bulldogs → Poinsettia Bowl (Dec. 21, 8pm — San Diego, CA)
Hawaii Warriors → Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24, 8pm — Honolulu, HI)
A couple quick things about the conference. I think Fresno State is always a very tough, physical team that will always be a contender under coach Pat Hill. Nevada is still a quality team, but after losing RB Vai Tua and especially QB Colin Kaepernick (one of the best dual-threats in all of college football the past 4 years) they will inevitably take a step back from the outstanding year they had in 2010. Finally, I don’t think Hawaii is a great team (as their 9-4 record might indicate), just an extremely tough team to beat at home. When you have to fly practically halfway around the world to get to their home turf, that gives them a serious home field advantage. Alright, on to the next one.
Alright I waited far too long to get back on this thing. Been very busy at work and thought I’d have more time to mess around on here before the season started. But that’s not a bad thing, because it means COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS HERE AGAIN BABY!
Since I’m on a major time crunch here and what I wrote last year still very much applies, I’m going to give everyone a chance to review it one more time.
From last year’s initial predictions post:
Let me please preface this entire post with the admission that preseason predictions (or predictions in general for that matter) are by far the most pointless and futile endeavors in all of sports journalism. The old sports adage that ‘You don’t play games on paper’ has stuck around for a very simple reason: it couldn’t be more true. However, I will say that trying to predict the winner of a football game is decidedly easier and more precise than as compared to other sports like say, basketball or baseball.
However, it’s still ridiculous. Nobody knows. Especially not Week 1. I find it ludicrous that the AP and Coaches’ Poll are still allowed to come out with official Preseason Rankings given the nature of how those polls generally operate (i.e. you can’t move up much unless one or several teams ranked ahead of you lose) and given how much weight they are given when determining the BCS standings.
That being said, I find (as I think most sports crazy junkies do) that looking at the season schedules for college football and the NFL and trying to predict the outcomes before a single snap is played is also one of the most fun and exciting activities you can do before the season starts. It gives us hopelessly obsessed people something to do. And, on the rare occasions we’re right (no, even the ‘experts’ aren’t very good at this) we get to claim credit for being, well, experts.
To get a couple things out of the way right off the bat.
1. Yes I am this big of a nerd. Yes I am this obsessed with college football. I’ve accepted it completely and admit that I am depraved and probably like football (especially college football) a little too much. I’m ok with that.
2. Yes I did spend hours researching every game and actually taking time to pick a winner. I didn’t just look at each team’s schedule and circle my first instinct. While this is often the most accurate method, it’s certainly not as much fun, at least for me. I love reading in depth about every major team, and even some minor ones. I’ve read 6 college football preview magazines cover-to-cover this year, a couple of them more than once. For my money, it still doesn’t get better than Phil Steele’s College Football Preview – if you ever want to brush up on your college football and start immersing yourself in the sport, everything you would ever need to know is right there in that magazine. That is, of course, assuming you already have at least a basic knowledge of the game and how it’s played, however. So I’ve really put a lot of time and thought into these picks – which means they’ll probably end up being completely off-base. But that’s the fun part.
3. While I am a little bit sick and certainly unhealthily obsessed, I actually do plenty of other things besides read college football magazines and blog. My secret? I just don’t sleep very much.
So there you have it. And now with very little fanfare, here are my predictions for EVERY SINGLE GAME of the 2011 season. That’s right, stepped up my game this year and made predictions for every conference, from the SEC right down to the Sun Belt.
Speaking of which, let’s mix it up this year and reveal my predictions in reverse order of when I picked them. So let’s start with the Sun Belt, shall we?
Sun Belt (Overall Record, Conference Record)
1. Troy (9-3, 8-0)
2. Middle Tennessee State (8-4, 7-1)
3. Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) (7-5, 6-2)
4. Florida Atlantic (5-7, 5-3)
5. Florida International (FIU) (5-7, 3-5)
6. Arkansas State (4-8, 2-6)
7. Western Kentucky (3-9, 2-6)
8. Louisiana-Lafayette (Louisiana) (3-9, 2-6)
9. North Texas (1-11, 1-7)
Sun Belt Bowl Games
Troy Trojans → New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 17, 9pm — New Orleans, LA)
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders → GoDaddy.com Bowl (Jan. 8, 9pm — Mobile, AL)
Troy has dominated this league in recent years (an Ohio State-esque 5 straight years of at least tying for the league title), and I like them to continue that trend. I’m riding pretty high on MTSU because last year they were a much better team than their 6-6 record showed (6-7 if you count the bowl loss). They were -19 in turnovers and lost their starting QB for 1/3 of the season. Any team that can survive that and still get to a bowl is a solid team in my book. I’m thinking they’ll turn some heads this year in the Sun Belt.
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