I know the season has now already started, but I was far too busy with work and then actually watching football games in my free time last weekend to hop on here and post the final (and obviously most important) conference — the soon-to-be-defunct Big 12.
I’d like to take a moment to comment on that last remark. I have been keeping track of the whole conference realignment rumor mill, and I’m deeply concerned about what will happen to both Mizzou and the Big 12 when it all shakes out (for those who don’t know or have forgotten, I went to Missouri). BUT… a rumor mill is all it is at this point. Nobody knows anything for sure. I could waste hours of my life I’ll never get back worrying myself sick over this issue and trying to follow every new ‘lead’ that pops up. In fact, I know people who have… I have neither the time nor the patience for that. I will keep a casual interest in all the rumors, and stay on top of the issue, but until some actual FACTS are reported, don’t expect to hear a peep on this blog about it. If and when that day comes, however, I’ll be sure to share some thoughts. Alright, back to predictions.
The Big 12 is going to be a very good league this year. Possibly the second-best league behind the SEC. While I don’t think it’s quite as deep as the Big Ten, the top half of the league has the chance to be ridiculously good. Here’s how I think they’ll shake out in 2011:
Big 12 Conference
1. Oklahoma (11-1, 9-0)
2. Texas A&M (11-1, 8-1)
3. Texas (10-2, 7-2)
4. Oklahoma State (9-3, 6-3)
5. Missouri (8-4, 5-4)
6. Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5)
7. Kansas State (5-7, 3-6)
8. Baylor (4-8, 2-7)
9. Kansas (3-9, 1-8)
10. Iowa State (1-11, 0-9)
When I originally made my predictions off the top of my head back in the middle of summer, I had OU meeting Bama in the National Championship game. But I just don’t trust Bob Stoops to lead a team that’s ranked #1 at the start of the year, along with all the pressure and extra attention that brings, to an undefeated season. OU almost always seems to drop a game to somebody they shouldn’t. This year, I think it will at least be excusable — going on the road against a super-talented Florida State team, not to mention that OU won’t have their best defensive (and maybe best overall) player in senior LB Travis Lewis, and that’s a tough hill to climb. While OU certainly has talented and capable backups, Travis Lewis is the best linebacker in the country. Bar none. I don’t care how good his backup is, he’s not Travis Lewis. Losing him hurts quite a bit, and that was the final straw that made me pick at least one game for OU to falter this year.
Texas A&M is a VERY good team. The one thing that remains to be seen is how the defense will perform after losing Von Miller, the best linebacker in last year’s draft class. I think they’ll be alright, and that offense should be damn near unstoppable. I like them to win every game except their road trip to Norman. If it were in College Station, I might have even picked the Aggies to go undefeated. That’s how high I am on them this year.
I think Texas is going to be back. I know they went 5-7 last year, but I’m sorry, you just don’t keep a roster with that much talent down for long. Throw in the fact that I like what I’ve seen and heard about Mack Brown getting after these guys, kicking their ass a little and re-setting the tone and attitude of that program, and I’m feeling good about the Longhorns. On top of that, you have to remember these players all signed up to play for Texas with the expectation they would not only compete for, but WIN conference and national titles. Going 5-7 had to sting their collective ego something fierce. This will be a very hungry, very talented team — watch out. The only thing that still makes me nervous is the passing game. Their top two receivers left the program over the summer for personal reasons, (although one has since returned), and it remains to be seen who will take over the quarterback position and perform at a championship level. But I’m still saying the Horns get back at least into the top half of the league in 2011.
Oklahoma State’s offense might be the best in the country. Losing Kendall Hunter at RB should not be overlooked — the guy was super-talented — but with Weeden and Blackmon back, they’ll be just fine. The other key they lost on offense was Dana Holgorson, the offensive coordinator who is now head coach for West Virginia. I’m still saying the Pokes are going to be a very tough team to beat, but given those two facts I can’t expect them to match last year’s record-setting 11 wins.
Oooooooooooooold Missouuuuuuuuri, faiiiiiiiir Missouuuuuri… I think James Franklin will eventually become the next great quarterback in what is becoming quite the impressive string of Mizzou signal callers. But let’s be realistic, the guy is just a sophomore. Looking back at what happened when Chase Daniel and then Blaine Gabbert took the reins in their sophomore campaigns, the results were good but not great. In 2006, while Daniel was a sophomore and a first-year full-time starter, the Tigers went 8-4 and lost their bowl game to Oregon State on a last-second play. In 2009, when Blaine Gabbert was a sophomore and a first-year full-time starter, Missouri went 8-4 and lost their bowl game to Navy. So obviously in 2011, with James Franklin as a first-year full-time sophomore starter, I’m calling for the Tigers to go 8-4 and hopefully actually win their bowl game. But I think 8-4 is a realistic expectation for this team. If Gabbert and Alden Smith had not jumped a year early to the NFL, this team would be talked about for National Championship contention. Even accounting for losing two first-round draft picks, the Tigers have 9 starters back on offense and 6 back on defense. This is a very deep, experienced team. There are a couple concerns, however. The few positions they lost starters at are arguably the most important positions in all of football — quarterback, pass rusher, center and left tackle (after senior Elvis Fisher went down with a knee injury in summer practice). It’s tough for anybody to step in and fill a departed starter’s shoes, but especially tough at those positions, and triply tough when you consider that the QB and DE were both top-10 NFL draft picks. Still, I think Mizzou will be a formidable team and possibly even a sleeper as Big 12 champs, as some national pundits have thrown out there, although I think that might be a bit too high of praise.
I won’t say much about the bottom half of the league except to say that they probably won’t be very good. I will say Baylor’s offense impressed me a lot in their opening win over TCU — but keep in mind that was facing a Horned Frogs defense that had just 5 returning starters. Also important to note that, despite winning, the Bears gave up 48 points to a TCU offense that lost first-round QB Andy Dalton and had just 3 returning starters — not a good sign when you consider they have to face much more talented and more experienced offenses up and down the entire conference schedule. It was a very exciting game, Robert Griffin III is a beast, and Baylor will put up points this year… but they’re probably going to lose a lot more of those shootouts than they win. It also gives me great pleasure to predict another awful year for kansas (yes, it’s not capitalized on purpose) and poor Iowa State might not win another game all year after barely sneaking past Northern Iowa, 20-19, in the opener… at home. Ouch.
